Correcting Split Selection in Online Decision Trees via Anytime-Valid Inference

Bagging-based ensembles, most notably Adaptive Random Forests, are among the strongest performers for learning from data streams. A common denominator across these methods is their reliance on Hoeffding Trees as base learners, which grow decision trees incrementally by testing whether a candidate split is significantly better than its alternatives using concentration inequalities. Despite their empirical success, existing variants lack valid statistical guarantees. Current analyses rely on fixed-sample concentration bounds, while split decisions are made using data-dependent stopping rules, which invalidates their guarantees and can drive the probabilty of incorrect splits to one. We introduce a principled alternative based on anytime-valid inference. Our method provides: (i) anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams, including non-stationary settings; (ii) finite commitment time under a predictive advantage; and (iii) under stationary i.i.d. data, risk is monotone decreasing and strictly improves at every split. Empirically, we evaluate both standalone trees and their use within Adaptive Random Forests on non-stationary streams. Our method improves performance while producing substantially smaller trees.

Entropic Projection Alignment: Estimating, Explaining, and Improving Model Performance Under Distribution Shift

We propose a unified framework for addressing three key challenges of distribution shift: (1) estimating a model's performance on an unlabeled target domain, (2) explaining the shift by identifying the features responsible, and (3) improving the target domain performance. Our method, Entropic Projection Alignment (EPA), aligns the source distribution to the target by matching carefully selected moments while simultaneously minimising the KL divergence from the source. This formulation yields a unique closed-form solution for importance weights, achieving robustness through implicit variance control. Drawing on domain adaptation theory, we establish that moment matching is sufficient for reliable estimation and adaptation, avoiding the need for full density ratio recovery. Extensive experiments, together with strong theoretical guarantees, demonstrate that EPA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines while offering substantial computational efficiency.

Counterfactual Reasoning in Automated Planning

Automated planning traditionally assumes that all aspects of a planning task (initial state, goals, and available actions) are fully specified in advance, an approach well-suited to domains with fixed rules and deterministic execution. However, real-world planning often requires flexibility, allowing for deviations from the original task parameters in response to unforeseen circumstances or to improve outcomes. This paper surveys existing works on counterfactual reasoning in automated planning, categorizing them by what elements are changed, when the reasoning is triggered, and why and how these changes are made. We conclude by discussing key findings and outlining open research questions to guide future work in this area.

Scalable Secure Biometric Authentication without Auxiliary Identifiers

The prevalence of biometric authentication has been on the rise due to its ease of use and elimination of weak passwords. To date, most biometric authentication systems have been designed for on-device authentication of the device owner (e.g., smartphones and laptops). Recently, biometric authentication systems have started to emerge that are designed to authenticate users against cloud databases storing representations of biometrics for large numbers of users (potentially millions), such as those facilitating biometric payments. However, the use of a large cloud database introduces a significant attack vector, as a breach of the database could lead to the compromise of all enrolled users' sensitive biometric data. Indeed, all such existing systems either do not adequately protect against such a breach, or are impractical to deploy and use due to their high computational overhead. In this work, we present a new biometric authentication system that provides provable security guarantees against data breaches, while remaining scalable and performant. To do so, we marry artificial intelligence with advanced cryptographic techniques in a novel fashion, providing several optimizations along the way. Our work is the first to show that real-world scalable privacy-preserving biometric authentication without auxiliary identifiers is feasible, and we believe that it will spur widespread industrial adoption and further research in this area.

ShapShift: Explaining Model Prediction Shifts with Subgroup Conditional Shapley Values

Changes in input distribution can induce shifts in the average predictions of machine learning models. Such prediction shifts may impact downstream business outcomes (e.g. a bank's loan approval rate), so understanding their causes can be crucial. We propose \ours{}: a Shapley value method for attributing prediction shifts to changes in the conditional probabilities of interpretable subgroups of data, where these subgroups are defined by the structure of decision trees. We initially apply this method to single decision trees, providing exact explanations based on conditional probability changes at split nodes. Next, we extend it to tree ensembles by selecting the most explanatory tree and accounting for residual effects. Finally, we propose a model-agnostic variant using surrogate trees grown with a novel objective function, allowing application to models like neural networks. While exact computation can be intensive, approximation techniques enable practical application. We show that \ours{} provides simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes, aiding model monitoring in dynamic environments.

When Do We Need LLMs? A Diagnostic for Language-Driven Bandits

We study Contextual Multi-Armed Bandits (CMABs) for non-episodic sequential decision making problems where the context includes both textual and numerical information (e.g., recommendation systems, dynamic portfolio adjustments, offer selection; all frequent problems in finance). While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to these settings, utilizing LLMs for reasoning at every decision step is computationally expensive and uncertainty estimates are difficult to obtain. To address this, we introduce LLMP-UCB, a bandit algorithm that derives uncertainty estimates from LLMs via repeated inference. However, our experiments demonstrate that lightweight numerical bandits operating on text embeddings (dense or Matryoshka) match or exceed the accuracy of LLM-based solutions at a fraction of their cost. We further show that embedding dimensionality is a practical lever on the exploration-exploitation balance, enabling cost--performance tradeoffs without prompt complexity. Finally, to guide practitioners, we propose a geometric diagnostic based on the arms' embedding to decide when to use LLM-driven reasoning versus a lightweight numerical bandit. Our results provide a principled deployment framework for cost-effective, uncertainty-aware decision systems with broad applicability across AI use cases in financial services.

Dynamic Linear Coregionalization for Realistic Synthetic Multivariate Time Series

Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

TradeFM: A Generative Foundation Model for Trade-flow and Market Microstructure

Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a universal tokenization scheme that map the heterogeneous, multi-modal event stream of order flow into a unified discrete sequence -- eliminating asset-specific calibration. Integrated with a deterministic market simulator, TradeFM-generated rollouts reproduce key stylized facts of financial returns, including heavy tails, volatility clustering, and absence of return autocorrelation. Quantitatively, TradeFM achieves 2-3x lower distributional error than Compound Hawkes baselines and generalizes zero-shot to geographically out-of-distribution APAC markets with moderate perplexity degradation. Together, these results suggest that scale-invariant trade representations capture transferable structure in market microstructure, opening a path toward synthetic data generation, stress testing, and learning-based trading agents.

Distill and Align Decomposition for Enhanced Claim Verification

Complex claim verification requires decomposing sentences into verifiable subclaims, yet existing methods struggle to align decomposition quality with verification performance. We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) approach that jointly optimizes decomposition quality and verifier alignment using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Our method integrates: (i) structured sequential reasoning; (ii) supervised finetuning on teacher-distilled exemplars; and (iii) a multi-objective reward balancing format compliance, verifier alignment, and decomposition quality. Across six evaluation settings, our trained 8B decomposer improves downstream verification performance to (71.75%) macro-F1, outperforming prompt-based approaches ((+1.99), (+6.24)) and existing RL methods ((+5.84)). Human evaluation confirms the high quality of the generated subclaims. Our framework enables smaller language models to achieve state-of-the-art claim verification by jointly optimising for verification accuracy and decomposition quality.

No One Size Fits All: QueryBandits for Hallucination Mitigation

Advanced reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to more frequent hallucinations; yet most mitigation work focuses on open-source models for post-hoc detection and parameter editing. The dearth of studies focusing on hallucinations in closed-source models is especially concerning, as they constitute the vast majority of models in institutional deployments. We introduce QueryBandits, a model-agnostic contextual bandit framework that adaptively learns online to select the optimal query-rewrite strategy by leveraging an empirically validated and calibrated reward function. Across 16 QA scenarios, our top QueryBandit (Thompson Sampling) achieves an 87.5% win rate over a No-Rewrite baseline and outperforms zero-shot static policies (e.g., Paraphrase or Expand) by 42.6% and 60.3%, respectively. Moreover, all contextual bandits outperform vanilla bandits across all datasets, with higher feature variance coinciding with greater variance in arm selection. This substantiates our finding that there is no single rewrite policy optimal for all queries. We also discover that certain static policies incur higher cumulative regret than No-Rewrite, indicating that an inflexible query-rewriting policy can worsen hallucinations. Thus, learning an online policy over semantic features with QueryBandits can shift model behavior purely through forward-pass mechanisms, enabling its use with closed-source models and bypassing the need for retraining or gradient-based adaptation.